About Arcane Thunder

Arcane Thunder 25 is a 2nd Multi-Domain Task Force exercise with U.S. Army and
multinational partners in May 2025 in Utska, Poland; Mainz-Kastel, Germany; and Fort
Huachuca, Arizona. This exercise will integrate joint forces, Allies, and partner capabilities to strengthen our ability to defend U.S. homeland and the protect our Allies.

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Video by Kristen Taylor
Conversations on Strategy Podcast – Ep 39 – Dr. Jared M. McKinney, Dr. Peter Harris, Col. Rich D. Butler, and Josh Arostegui – Deterrence Gap - Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait - Part 2
U.S. Army War College Public Affairs
April 24, 2024 | 22:01
The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and other regional powers can develop multiple, interlocking deterrents that will ensure Taiwanese security in the short and longer terms. By joining deterrence theory with an empirical analysis of Taiwanese, Chinese, and US policies, the monograph provides US military and policy practitioners new insights into ways to deter the People’s Republic of China from invading Taiwan without relying exclusively on the threat of great-power war. In this episode, Dr. Jared M. McKinney, Dr. Peter Harris, Col. Rich D. Butler, and Josh Arostegui discuss Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait and the possible trajectories for China and Taiwan over the coming decades.

Keywords: China, Taiwan, deterrence, One China, Chinese Communist Party, Silicon Shield, deterrence theory

E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article.

Download the full transcript: https://media.defense.gov/2024/Apr/24/2003449056/-1/-1/0/COS-39-MCKINNEY_HARRIS_BUTLER_AROSTEGUI-DETERRANCE-GAP-PART-2.PDF
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deterrenceTaiwanChinese Communist PartySilicon Shielddeterrence theoryOne China
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